IMD was anticipating close to normal monsoon conditions for India and continued harping on this statement until August arrived and it finally realised overcast clouds had actually failed to pour and they would have to announce a partial drought condition in the country. Farmer's have already started committing suicide entering into a cycle of debt again, why do we need a MET department that is unable to study climate change trends that fails to help farmers in the country to prepare themselves for the worst. Advising farmers to change crop sowing pattern's is not going to help their cause. News channels are reporting drought conditions to be worse than 2009.
Let's check the whole series of prediction model goof up's :
1) El Nino unlikely to hit monsoon : MET office, TOI Jul 11 2012
2) Weak Monsoon a worry, but no drought, IBN Live Jul 16 2012
3) Wake up call finally on Aug 4, El Nino may effect the monsoon : Business Standard
Government machinery is still shooting down drought fears, however we are already aware of the poor storage and distribution network for food grains which allows middle men and traders to hoard foodgrains leading to a price rice condition which leads to high inflation situation that is left to RBI to solve, it's not just India but the entire global food chain that would probably witness food price rise.
Subsidies and relief packages would be announced for farmers and states, the end consumer would be left to battle market conditions and the blame game would then pass on to nature's hide and seek game on the already pressurised economic conditions, so don't expect RBI or government to come up with a relief tonic to the ongoing inflation disease, you can only hope for a consolation wish on the way - Happy Diwali !
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